
Last week, in the middle of an article on giants running back Brandon Jacobs and his play for a long term deal, Ryan Wilson at the fanhouse quipped, "Running back is arguably the most fungible position on the roster." It's an interesting meme making the rounds in NFL circles over recent years. Namely, running backs are rarely worth the value star status and large contracts bestow upon them.
The contention seemingly flies in the face of hallowed football logic that winning is running the football and stopping the run. The logic smacks of Moneyball new analysis. And indeed Aaron Schatz the head outsider of the Football Outsiders, a collective of writers employing advanced statistics, wrote an in-depth, engaging piece four years ago for Slate advancing the idea.
Schatz's nuanced argument is more about the stronger correlation between passing and victory than rushing and victory. As Schatz says, "In general, winning teams pile up rushing yards by running out the clock after they have the lead - teams run when they win rather than win when they run." He's certainly taking shots at the 'Establish the Run' cliche. And I agree, there's lots of ways to win football games.
Schatz also stressed the kind of production a team gets from its workhorse runner. The basic statistics on the flipside of a running back's Topps card - attempts, yards, yards per carry - tell us very little about the value of a back's production. Did the first down carry give his team a second and short? Did the third down carry convert the first down? Did the block pick up the blitzing linebacker?
In all, the big thought - star running backs are overrated - is a question of relative value in a bounded world. With the salary cap on one side and a limited talent pool on the other, pro football is bound by limited resources. Schatz compresses the identity of the 32 teams - in the case of the Lions a good thing, in the case of the Steelers perhaps not - to provide a model of roster building.
The logic's understandable, it's sensible, but something about it irks me. It's one thing when Schatz argues it, I think we all understand where it's coming from... it's another when Peter King tosses it out there without a deep system of numbers behind him. Last November, in the heat of the playoff race, King took one slice of the season and tried to claim star running backs aren't necessary:
Running backs are the curse of the NFL. Look at Chicago, which in the last 13 drafts has taken Rashaan Salaam, Curtis Enis and Cedric Benson in the first round and been disappointed by all three. Look at Arizona, which paid $7 million a year for Edgerrin James, 29, who's averaging 73 yards a Sunday as a Cardinal.
...
You can find guys on the NFL street to gain 1,200 yards for you. Happens every year. The lesson should ring out in every front office in the league over the next few years: Don't pay big money for a back who's been a star in the league. Instead, develop your own later-round finds. They come in all shapes and sizes.
I like King, his contacts are incredible. But sometimes he's lazy intellectually and comes off as flippant. What about Adrian Peterson? What about LaDainian Tomlinson? What team wouldn't want to have either of those players. King makes it sound like running back is the only place you find busts in the draft or on the open market. Drafting defensive tackles seems a more perilous obsession.
Talent is talent. And more constraining than the salary cap is the limited talent available to truly dominate competition week in and week out. Talent acquisition in the NFL isn't a science unless teams go for the overwhelming approach, drafting linemen in the middle rounds year after year hoping someone sticks, playing at an above average clip, for instance.
To take King's example of Chicago, they simply made a wrong decision sticking with Cedric Benson over Thomas Jones. Jones was the Chicago offense, they could have paid him as a very good starter and still made opponents game plan for him. Instead, they were robbed by the Jets for whom Jones managed to be one of maybe three or four good players on their offense. Watch Jones with Alan Faneca up front this year, Faneca who should calm down D'Brickashaw and Mangold enough to provide a great punch through the left side.
Chicago requires a seriously good running back. Their resources are spent putting together a dominant defense. A great running back is the shortest path to accomplishing what the offense needs to do: control the football, bleed the clock. A team can get one in the first round, on the open market, or as a undrafted free agent... But none of these provide a money-back guarantee. The running back is still the thing. What they've done with their talent should be questioned. But I have hard time finding fault with their approach.
The Vikings benefited from the decreased esteem in which top runners are held, nabbing Adrian Peterson at seven in the first round of the 2007 Draft. He gave his team everything it needed if mere competence were in operation at quarterback and receiver. Peterson's number declined in the final weeks as teams loaded up the line. A crafty veteran QB would have made the Redskins and Broncos pay for their eight and nine in the box. Instead, they dropped the last two and their clear path to the playoffs.
Oddly enough, running backs might be more important to fans now more than ever. It should be clear that I don't play fantasy football. Nothing against fantasy sports in general, any complex waste of time so incomprehensible to half the population is obviously all right by me, especially one that sets up an elaborate, hilarious joke in a Judd Apatow movie. But running backs are the biggest point getters in fantasy football, making their progress important to a large segment of the population watching closely the games on Sunday.
While I won't take umbrage with Schatz's contention because I understand it in the context he presents it, the general manager isn't the author of what happens on the field. I don't think we should dismiss a guy who handles the 20-25 times a game so lightly. Great running backs will always be central to the pro game even if there are so few. Some teams will never stop trying to hang their identity on tough inside running that can burn a defense built on upfield pass pressure. To take over the AFC Championship game last year, the Patriots reverted to a power running game in the middle of the field. They put the ball in belly of their first round draft pick from 2006, Laurence Maroney, who gutted the Chargers for 122 yards on the day and slowed the brutal rush that killed the Colts the week before.
It's that kind of running, the breaking style of Peterson, the brutality of Marion Barber, the smooth power of Tomlinson, that will have teams dropping big dollars on worthy backs... And a few not so worthy ones.










































