The New Math

Forget dominance. "Improbable" is the most misused word in the NFL.

It's time to stop calling runs like the ones the Cardinals, Eagles, and Ravens are on to the conference championship games improbable.

Out of those three teams at least one, and potentially two, will end up in the Super Bowl. And all sportswriters and commentators can apply as a modifier to this state of affairs is unlikely, unprecedented, and, yes, improbable.

Forget that the Cardinals have beat more playoff teams (two) in the playoffs than they did during the whole regular season (one).

Forget that the Eagles drooled all over themselves during the most inept game of the season, a thirteen-all tie against the Bengals.

Forget that the Ravens crumpled like a paper doll in the palm of every frontrunner's hand during the regular season, their lead paper doll rookie quarterback Joe Flacco in those games.

Forget all that.

Look to the recent history of Super Bowl and near Super Bowl teams. What becomes apparent is that these championship-bound teams of 2008-09 are on paths anything but improbable.

Take the 2005-06 playoffs.

The Steelers rose from a sixth seed – needing four straight wins at the end the season to even qualify for the playoffs – to Super Bowl champions (crowned anywhere outside of the Seattle area, that is). All season the defense was hampered by an inconsistent offense in large part due to inexperience at quarterback. When coach Bill Cowher took the restraints off Ben Roethlisberger, he responded with three straight solid-to-great games. Roethlisberger’s Super Bowl was horrible, but Pittsburgh outlasted Seattle in a sloppy game. Sloppy or not, these champions kicked off this notion of improbable runs.

Take the 2006-07 playoffs.

The Colts entered the playoffs with an almost historically bad run defense. Sure, the Indianapolis offense was dominant again most of the season. But championship football is always about a defense making key stops, key plays. With the return of Bob Sanders, the defense dominated the Chiefs and Ravens and flummoxed the Patriots and Bears on the way to a Lombardi Trophy. The previously atrocious defense turned Peyton Manning into a game manager, a dink and dunker.

Take the 2007-08 playoffs.

The Giants despite qualifying for the playoffs were considered frauds. Their coach was roundly mocked as inept, their quarterback disinterested, their defense inconsistent. All it took was one shot at the Patriots. No, not the Super Bowl, but the Week 17 game played with nothing on the line. In close loss, the Giants proved to themselves capable of going toe-to-toe with anyone. The story need not be repeated here, of course, but that confidence parlayed into a brutal run, bloodied opponents left in their championship wake.

And, after three straight supposed unlikely sets of hands hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, we’re supposed to dismiss the ugly mitts of Arizona, Baltimore, and Philly as undeserving?

While each of these teams possess weaknesses, the playoffs are not about weaknesses. The playoffs are a crucible to impose strengths and run roughshod over inconsistencies.

Seeds of doubt sew a perfect situation for teams like these Cardinals, Eagles, and Ravens. I’ve talked about it here before. Arizona, Baltimore, and Philly so far have had the Drop on their respective situations. The literal and figurative chance of the bouncing ball works in tandem with a freedom from expectations. Expectations are a heavy burden in a game whose taxing quality is its intensity, not its grind.

I could draw the obvious parallels between the Steelers of three years ago and these Ravens, dominating defense and young quarterback displaying his considerable skills at the right time.

Or the Colts of two years ago and these Cardinals, great quarterback surrounded by a suddenly surging defense built around speed and chaos.

Or the Giants of last year and these Eagles, often-derided leader playing to potential amidst a finally awoken long slumbering pressure defense.

Instead, I'll just let each of these teams write their own stories. Improbable is the new likely, impossible the new truth. This new math will fry the circuits of your supercomputer.