
After months of anticipation, the Draft is nearly here. I'm only halfway through the Know Your War Rooms series (check here for parts one and two).
(Blame the delay in this analysis on several things: grilling in the park on a beautiful Saturday, a pesky virus caught from my roommate, laying the groundwork for new and ambitious projects.)
With time running short and much preparation to go before I cover this year's Draft in person, here's Fuhbaw's breakdown of the remaining NFL war rooms in breezy Cliff Notes style.
16. San Diego Chargers
GM AJ Smith is a top talent evaluator. The Chargers are a talent stacked team and Smith, brash bastard that he is, knows it. He also knows San Diego's Super Bowl window won't remain open forever, with LaDainian Tomlinson on his last legs. Add in the defensive struggles when Shawne Merriman missed all of last season, and expect Smith to target a few key players ready to contribute, ones likely to add teeth to his defense or speed to his offense.
17. New York Jets
New coach Rex Ryan has talked a lot about turning the Jets into an aggressive team. New acquisitions Bart Scott, Lito Sheppard, and Jim Leonard reflect that talk. Whether that aggression translates to the Draft (or to the field, for that matter) remains to be seen. The team needs a quarterback and may trade up should Mark Sanchez fall or Josh Freeman linger. The team needs a speedy wideout and depth along the defensive and offensive lines and could trade down to collect valuable picks. However sitting tight at each of their seven picks and selecting the best player available might be the best (non) move.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa 2 may not reign in Tampa much longer. New coach Raheem Morris brought in veteran defensive coordinator Jim Bates who runs a 4-3 scheme based on the old Dallas defenses of the 90s. The major differences between Bates's defense and the Tampa 2 honed by Tony Dungy and Monte Kiffin is a reliance on more size than speed and requiring aggressive man-to-man coverage at the corners. The Buccaneers lack suitable personnel, especially after the veteran purge early in free agency. New GM Mark Dominik even with needs on his offense, one short on playmakers, might be inclined to go defense with his selections.
21. Philadelphia Eagles
The future is always somewhere else in Philly. Andy Reid often goes big, selecting linemen in the early rounds, despite consistent depth there. And Reid also trades down for future picks if he doesn't like the available value. After trading the 28th pick to Buffalo for Jason Peters, the offensive line should be solid. That means the Eagles must target a playmaking receiver or running back at 21, right? Maybe. Or maybe they'll wait until one of their four fifth round picks comes up.
22. Minnesota Vikings
You might think that the only thing this team would need would be a quarterback. The front office would disagree with you. Without the ammo to trade up for Sanchez, the point is fairly moot anyway. And the Vikings could use depth, on the offensive line, in the secondary, and at receiver. The team doesn't shy away from small school prospects, so prepare for a couple head scratchers.
23. New England Patriots
Perhaps the most exciting thing about this draft once we get past the first ten or so rounds? Bill Belichick is holding eleven selections, six among the first 100. That, my friends, is draft day ammunition. The three second rounders in particular will begin to look like gold come Saturday morning. If there's anyone the Patriots covet, they more than likely can get him. It should also be noted that the Panthers, holding a disgruntled Julius Peppers, don't pick until 59, which is after the Patriots would pick four times if their selections remain unmoved.
24. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons and GM Thomas Dimitroff proved adept in last year's Draft at addressing their pressing needs while moving around to select players at good relative value. This year their selections near the end of each round instead of the beginning, which will make that task considerably more difficult. Expect Dimitroff to try as his young playoff team still needs bulk along the defensive line and speed in the secondary. In his first draft, Dimitroff gravitated toward performers from big college programs.
25. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins need a receiver or two. They could also use some more speed at the corners. But my bet is that Bill Parcells, despite the surprise playoff run last year, doesn't believe this team is big enough and talented enough in the trenches to win year in and year out. Don't be surprised if Parcells spends many of Miami's early picks on sizable specimens playing linebacker, defensive end, and guard.
26. Baltimore Ravens
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In case you missed Judy Battista's article in the New York Times this weekend, let me summarize. GM Ozzie Newsome is patient, thorough, and deliberate. The Ravens know exactly what kind of player they want on their team and construct their prospect board accordingly. Plus, Newsome trains each of his scouts in their scouting system making the chain of communication that much clearer from the scouting reports to the war room discussions. Consequently, the Ravens don't reach and don't overreact.
27. Indianapolis Colts
Team president Bill Polian’s strategy is the ultimate study in best player available. The phrase is tossed around plenty pre-Draft. But during the Draft no team honors its strictures better than the Colts. So we can talk the Colts needing another wide receiver, bigger defensive tackles, and depth at linebacker, but Polian will be content to sit back and select whatever player is rated highest on his board. As far as that board is concerned, Polian values character, intelligence, and production at big-time college programs over combine measurables, extremely to the point of fetishizing undersized, speedy players at just about every position.
29. New York Giants
New York’s transformation from underdog to frontrunner can in large part be attributed to GM Jerry Reese’s continuation of the steady drafting his predecessor Ernie Accorsi started. Like Accorsi, Reese values on-field toughness that lines up with elite measurables. Like Accorsi, Reese scours smaller programs for over-looked talent. Like Accorsi, Reese places premium on pass rushers and road graders. Most observers assume a Draft day trade with Cleveland for Braylon Edwards is imminent. But don’t be surprised if Reese isn’t lying when he says he’s comfortable going forward with Mario Manningham and Domenik Hixon.
30. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is a motley crew. And coach Jeff Fisher and GM Mike Reinfeldt like it that way. The Titans put top measurables like speed and strength at the top of their board, letting concerns like character take a back seat, happy to jump on any player that slips because of character concerns. Fisher’s long tenure and success affords Tennessee some rooms for mistakes. Fisher gambles that the Titans support network is strong enough to tame an unruly talent. In the case of Albert Haynesworth, yes. Pacman Jones? Not so much.
31. Arizona Cardinals
Last season’s surprise Super Bowl run was a testament to GM Rod Graves’s stellar drafting the past several years. The perennial two-bit franchise finally found the perfect bargain shopper in Graves who wasted no time in restocking the roster with young, elite talent. There have been some misses (Alan Branch and Matt Leinart still ride the pine) but more often than not Graves has hit on productive college players from big-time programs at crucial positions: Larry Fitzgerald, Karlos Dansby, Darnell Dockett, Anquan Boldin, etc. Graves’s two biggest challenges this year come down to a decision to deal disgruntled Boldin for less than the Cardinals’ considerable asking price (currently a 1st and 3rd rounder) and to unearth the same talent as in years prior while selecting at the end of each round.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have built their perennial contender through the Draft. While the Bidwells are considered penny pinchers, the Rooneys are tagged thrifty and brilliant because of their amazing Draft resume. Their offensive and defensive identity is set in stone which makes player evaluation for Pittsburgh that much easier, they know what kind of players are likely to thrive in their systems. Sure, the lines on both sides of the ball are getting a little old, but don’t expect GM Kevin Colbert to select a position because it fits a need. The Steelers aren’t afraid to trade up and down if they’ve targeted a player that can round out their considerably talented roster.
49. Chicago Bears
The Bears Draft? Jay Cutler, for better or worse. It's not like he needs anyone to throw to...
51. Dallas Cowboys
Amazingly, Dallas has eleven selections. Unamazingly, none are in the first round. Roy Williams is essentially their first rounder, and, like many first rounders, Dallas hopes for a big improvement during his second year with the club. Jerry Jones lives for hype and razzle-dazzle. But with so many middle round picks and such a talented starting line-up, the most sense might come from standing pat and selecting quality depth to build up the bottom end of the roster. The Cowboys tend to do well in the middle rounds with prospects from big schools.
59. Carolina Panthers
Losing a game changing defensive end - to trade, free agency, or retirement - has never left a team in good straights. (I'm thinking the Chiefs after Jared Allen, the Eagles after Reggie White, and the Vikings after Alan Page, specifically.) So Carolina would be stupid to give in to Julius Peppers's demands. But with needs throughout their defense, the Panthers might be tempted to realistically shop Peppers in order to land a couple immediate contributors. And as much as I would like Peppers free from the Panthers malaise, I still think its stupid on their part if they do the trade.
Wednesday, April 22
Know Your War Rooms, the Rest (Cliff Notes)
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