Know Your War Rooms, Selecting 1-10

The NFL Draft is suffuse with variables. So much is possible. So much dependent on what happens as the event unfolds.

The cumulative effect is a bit disorienting.

It's impossible to know if the Seahawks will select a tackle or quarterback or wide receiver in the first round. Teams guard their scouting reports and draft boards like Fort Knox.

But what can't be guarded is a front office's track record. Patterns come to the surface from history. In part, a team's philosophy of roster building emerges from their prior selections.

While analysis of a front office's draft history won't lead us to absolutes, it can paint a fuller picture of the likely scenarios than a simple mock draft. It's not just team needs, it's a matter of style because in the end the Draft is about a team's identity more than anything else.

This analysis will be a three five three parter with a look at each team in their initial drafting position before trades shifted the order (and portends to even more on draft day). With that, let's better know your war rooms for the league's 32 teams.

1. Detroit Lions

The fact that Detroit's war room is an unknown is a probably a good thing given the franchise's flirtation with futility this decade. General Manager Martin Mayhew is a holdover from the Millen days, but remains highly regarded despite the association. Coach Jim Schwartz brings his deliberate and creative approach from Tennessee, a team that's drafted reasonably well under Jeff Fischer, Pacman Jones notwithstanding.

With no past drafts to scrutinize, only the offseason's myriad free agent moves gives a glimpse at the team Schwartz and Mayhew want to construct. Obviously, the new Lions value size and strength, cutting undersized and underperforming players like Mike Furrey, Shaun Cody, and Leigh Bodden, while adding Bryant Johnson, Grady Jackson, and Phillip Buchanon not to mention Julian Peterson.

If Schwartz sticks close to the lessons learned during his time at the Titans, expect the Lions to place value on top measurables in place of unquantifiable notions like character or moxie. While some speculate Detroit's interest in Jason Smith represents a bargaining tactic with Matthew Stafford, don't be surprised if the Lions truly target Smith with the first pick. He's a top athlete with rare size. So far it's been Schwartz's mission to make the Lions bigger so they can get better. Expect more of the same draft weekend.

2. St Louis Rams

The Rams are a difficult franchise to figure out. They've had success in seasons past but have been an unmitigated disaster of late. Add in the likelihood that the team is still up for sale and the Rams appear to be on shaky ground. Yet new GM Billy Devaney made a truly inspired hire with new coach Steve Spagnuolo. Spagnuolo had the pick of his jobs last season but rebuffed interest from the Redskins and others to await a better job. On the surface, the Rams don't seem to provide Spagnuolo with the security he sought.

That said, the Rams aren't without talent. Steven Jackson, Oshiomogho Atogwe, and Chris Long are solid building blocks. Devaney has been with the Rams for a couple years, it's unclear what hand he's had in the draft room up to this point. The inconsistent drafts the past few years directly lead to the club's general lack of identity. Will Adam Carriker and Chris Long make for a formidable defensive front? Or will the team waste their talents on poor schemes and tepid team play?

There's hope that Spagnuolo carries over his hellacious defense from New York. To do so, the Rams will need to draft for strength and speed since they lack for it on the roster. The Giants have transformed into a success by constantly focusing on pass rush. Targeting linebackers and edge rushers throughout the draft would be a big step to installing Spagnuolo's defense. Of course, cutting Orlando Pace is a clear indication of St Louis's intentions, especially with the second overall pick. Commentators have penciled in the top tackles Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe with certainty. After that, it's up to Devaney and Spagnuolo to create a tougher and deeper team, something lacking from their drafts of late.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

We can all mourn the loss of Herm Edwards the quote machine, but Chiefs fans won't miss the horrible in-game gaffes and abysmal clock management. Fans are not likely to miss Carl Peterson's wildly inconsistent drafting either. While Peterson's 2008 draft still has the potential of being a team defining class, hopes rest with new GM Scott Pioli turning Kansas City into New England West.

Obviously the Patriots loom large over the new Chiefs. Pioli got his quarterback in Matt Cassel from his old team. And Pioli's success in assisting Bill Belichick construct the Patriots offers hints about the direction the Chiefs will take. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. New England's made some notable misses in the past few seasons. They haven't assembled a great class since 2005 and have leaned heavily on free agency to shore up skill positions, especially in the secondary and at wide receiver. For a franchise with such considerable success, my hesitations may sound like quibbling, but it's important to separate myth from reality.

A good indication of Pioli's direction could be how he helped build the Patriots in the early part of the decade, mainly, focusing on rare intersections of size and strength. Pioli and Belichick nabbed linemen early and often while building the Patriots. Pioli also focuses on players from big time programs with consistent on field production while ignoring workout warriors. He also places a high value on football people, sons of players and coaches, who can fulfill roles. Provided new head coach Todd Haley can refrain from tearing the roster apart, expect Pioli to craft a savvy tough team in KC.

4. Seattle Seahawks

My buddy DJ Noid has been waiting for this day, the draft where Seattle finally has a top pick so they can nab an elite talent that's eluded them drafting near the end of the first round year after year. No doubt, Seattle wasn't as bad as their 4-12 record suggested. Still, there's no shortage of holes on the roster starting with quarterback and the offensive line, once considered strengths of the team. I love Hass for whatever reason (photo in the banner no small point) but it's unclear whether he can regain his Pro Bowl form.

GM Tim Ruskell is an odd one. On the one hand, he projects a measured approach to the Seahawks rosters, re-signing proven veterans before they hit the market, drafting high character players with solid college production. On the other hand, Ruskell will drop mega contracts on players, whether a wise investment or not. Add in how badly he fucked up the Steve Hutchinson transition tag fiasco, and it's tough to know which Ruskell is the real one.

That said, Ruskell's draft record is remarkably consistent. Ruskell likes players from big schools in power conferences with solid stat sheets. He doesn't get hung up on measurables or workout warriors. He values production over potential. In essence, the Seahawks secondary is very short. With picks near the top of each round this year, Ruskell should have a chance at players with higher ceilings. And with the Seahawks needing help at quarterback, tackle, safety, running back, and corner, he'll have no shortage of options.

5. Cleveland Browns

While I don't know if the Jets should have fired Eric Mangini, it's unclear if he's up to the task of remaking (again) the Cleveland Browns. During his time in New York, he unearthed a few nice starters and role players in the Draft. But when he's not alienating his current stars Mangini will have to transform a defense that's never lived up to expectations.

With new GM George Kokinis, the ManKok (that's never going to get old, is it?) need to bolster a tepid pass rush, deepen a depleted secondary, nab some pass catchers, and settle on a signal caller. Oh, and they need to catch up to the Ravens and Steelers, too.

In drafts with the Jets, Mangini focused on elite measurables like speed in corners and rushers, strength in linemen and backers. He's also placed a high value on versatility, as evidenced by players like Brad Smith and Leon Washington. With only five picks this year, the Browns might need to actively trade down on Draft weekend to address their glaring weaknesses. The war room in New York that Mangini was a part of wasn't afraid of trades, often moving up to select a targeted player. For a team short on depth, being short draft picks doesn't help.

6. Cincinnati Bengals

Let the jokes fly. Cincy hasn't necessarily done terribly on Draft weekend. It's just that they've ignored issues like character and chemistry while they've nickled and dimed promising starters out of town. Just when you think the Bengals can't take a chance on a troubled talent, they turn around and pluck the longest rap sheet they can find. It's bizarre. The Brown family definitely marches to the beat of their own drummer. And I don't know if that's a good thing.

Beyond the convictions, other patterns emerge from recent Cincy drafts. They focus on solid performers from big time schools early in the Draft. Many early picks have been spent on defense these past few years. Keith Rivers was an inspired pick as was Domata Peko. But the Bengals still have needs on that side of the ball.

And despite drafting receivers to eventually replace Chad OchoCinco and the now departed TJ Houshmandzadeh, the Bengals couldn't go wrong selecting one from this year's talented class. Should they want Carson Palmer to remain upright, depth along the offensive line could be a key to this Draft. While I still think Palmer's overrated, the team seems committed to him. Likely Palmer and the Bengals' fortunes are intertwined.

7. Oakland Raiders

It's no secret what the Raiders value in prospects: speed. Al Davis's long draft resume reads like the roll of a track meet. Basically what I wrote last year still applies:

Oakland, the Black Hole, Al Davis's age - combine randomly and insert joke here. No doubt the Raiders have struggled the past five seasons. And part of those struggles are due to drafting inconsistently, in addition to poor coaching, dysfunctional management, and aging or injured veterans. Davis continues to head up the war room and despite his foibles of late he still cares passionately about building a winner in Oaktown. There is of course a type of player that typifies the Raiders, one they seek out in the draft. Cocky, swaggering... more tough than technician. Davis prides himself on being able to tell an athlete just by looking at them. Character concerns that might scare off other teams mean less in the final accounting for Davis and the Raiders. Plus, Davis isn't afraid to gamble on injury history.

While Davis's fetish for speed and top measurables constitute a considerable known, his maverick ways make his decisions difficult to predict. The Raiders need linemen and receivers and more depth in the secondary. But Oakland has never been a needs team. Davis will select the best players to his mind and let the chips fall where they may. The thought of Michael Crabtree being on the same team as Darren McFadden is seductive. Yet it's unclear if Davis even puts Crabtree on his board. One thing you can definitely say about the Raiders, they make Draft weekend interesting.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars

I'll never understand how the Jaguars got as talented as they are by drafting so inconsistently. And, after this year, we'll know if the fault lies with coach Jack Del Rio or now former GM Shack Harris. The Jaguars are seduced by top measurables sometimes selecting players late who haven't seen the football field much because of an excellent vertical or good three cone drill time.

In general, the Jaguars have gone directly after their needs whether that means trading down a few spots for Reggie Nelson or trading up for Derrick Harvey. The 2008 class was mostly a disaster, Harvey and fellow pass rusher Quentin Groves looking out of sorts much of the season. The team still has myriad needs in the interior of both lines as well as in the secondary and receiving corps.

Currently, Jacksonville is throwing out a huge smokescreen over potentially drafting a QB. It's unclear if they're simply hoping to entice another team to move up to the eighth overall selection or if there's another player they're hoping will be on the board when they select (Crabtree anyone?) or both. I know David Garrard has an awful statistical season last year, but the man was running for his life from day one. To keep apace with the Titans and Colts, the Jags will need more weapons and to become bigger and tougher in the trenches. However, he goes about it, you can bet Jack Del Rio knows this.

9. Green Bay Packers

Perhaps I shouldn't be allowed to analyze my Packers drafting. It's the one area where I without qualification adore the team's strategy, with minimal deviation from the company line. I can criticize GM Ted Thompson for head scratchers in free agency or coach Mike McCarthy for boneheaded play calls. But how the Packers draft is at once a thing of beauty in its elegant simplicity while being as dizzying as a whirlwind in its operation.

Thompson is a gifted talent evaluator but understands the limitations in predicting success in the NFL based on scouting. Instead of standing pat on Draft weekend and crossing his fingers as each turn comes up, Thompson constantly trades down to acquire more selections thus increasing the likelihood of hitting by increasing the number of players he brings in during a draft class. The strategy have transformed the Packers from an aging squad into a youthful one with a bright future and good cap number (please don't go away, salary cap).

It's such a simple and logical idea. It's also fittingly self effacing for the low key, tight lipped Thompson. With the selections he makes, Thompson excels at scouting wide receiver talent so much so that it's not a need in the least. Thompson though takes the highest player rated on his board regardless of need, why the Packers selected receiver Jordy Nelson with their first selection last year. In terms of needs, linemen and linebackers are paramount, but it would be out of character for Thompson to reach for a player. He does set up his board a little differently than most, placing high emphasis on character and on-field production, which leads some to criticize his selections as reaches. And I'm pretty sure Thompson is completely comfortable with people thinking whatever they want to about his drafts.

10. San Francisco 49ers

The Mike Nolan experiment is over. The Mike Singletary experience is proving to be a far weirder one than anyone ever dreamed. Looking through the last four years of San Fran drafts is chilling. Is there anyone on that team besides Patrick Willis and Frank Gore?

What direction the 49ers go with the tenth pick will provide a huge indication about the direction Singletary wants to take the team. Will he go big and grab the best rush backer available? Or will he take Mark Sanchez if he falls to the tenth pick and try to add firepower to a flaccid offense? Will select the best playmaking receiver to complement Vernon Davis?

There's no shortage of needs. It certainly says something that Singletary was able to squeeze some quality wins out of such a talent poor squad. In essence, I wouldn't be surprised if he focuses the majority of his draft on the offense and defensive lines in an effort to get bigger in the relatively shrimpy NFC West. I think Singletary believes he can get by on Shaun Hill if his defense plays with enough fire and Gore plays keep away. The 49ers might emulate the Chicago Bears teams Singletary excelled for in the 80s and early 90s.