The Business Of Heros And Villains

More draft analysis to come, but a little item that caught my attention this morning: Colts owner Jim Irsay is refusing to reopen negotiations on the Lucas Oil Stadium deal.

Okay. Not surprising, right? There's really no good precedent for reworking the terms of a stadium deal, publicly financed or not.

Except, Indianapolis city officials feel that the current economic crisis represents extenuating circumstances. The main problem centers around the city's Capital Improvement Board (CIB) which operates Lucas Oil Stadium, leasing it to the Colts. According to Indiana governor Mitch Daniels and other state and local officials, the CIB is facing a $47 million dollar deficit for 2010.

Government officials are asking for an additional $5 million, in good conscious, from the Colts and the Pacers (the CIB also operates the Conseco Fieldhouse) to alleviate some of that deficit among other measures set to save the CIB.

My question is this, given the Irsays' history, why would Indiana ever believe they would get anything from the Colts?

Jim's father Robert was the one who loaded up the team in the middle of the night and moved them from Baltimore to Indianapolis in the first place. Of course, the Colts situation in Baltimore deteriorated around the lack of a new stadium. Back-room negotiations became front-page bickering. Distrust deepened on both sides. The elder Irsay tried to use a sale or move of the club to finalize a public financed stadium deal. But the tactics blew up in his face, eroding support in government and in the public for the franchise's stadium needs.

The saga was a public relations nightmare from every side. The city of Baltimore, with the backing of the Maryland legislature, tried to seize the club. The specter of seizure sped up the negotiations between Indianapolis and Irsay. Once finalized, Indianapolis mayor John B. Smith sent a fleet of Mayflower trucks to the Colts facility in Owings Mills and whisked the franchise away in the middle of the night.

Of course, the Irsays blame the city of Baltimore and the state legislature. And many government officials blame Robert Irsay's lack of tact in the final years of the stadium imbroglio.

There's probably enough blame to go around for both sides. But, to bring it up to the current day, does the state of Indiana really expect the the younger Irsay to go back on the terms of his very favorable deal? I'm assuming not.

Are they simply trying to create a convenient villain, a temporary one that citizens won't hate forever, but will distract the public attention's long enough while the city government raises some local taxes? That seems more likely. Irsay's already come out and said, "I'm not going to renegotiate. That's the bottom line."

I don't know if the situation between the state of Indiana and Irsay will get uglier. The public financed stadium has been taken as a given in this day and age. However, the current financial crisis has the public reexamining its values along the line of where its money goes. When city and state agencies are running up overlarge deficits simply to keep multi-millionaires and their sports teams in town, there something wrong with the system.

Unfortunately, politics tends toward convenient villains rather than real solutions. I'm not saying Irsay is right and the governor is wrong or vice versa. But they're both operating with flawed contentions, inherited from the twisted business of pro sports over the past few decades.

Love the Draft/Hate the Draft

I'm finding it difficult to parse out the meaning of this year's Draft from the general excitement of Draft weekend.

Is the 2009 class an essential restocking of the league's middle class? Or simply mediocre from start to finish? Do we get hot and bothered over reaches like Darrius Heyward-Bey or Larry English? Or acknowledge with a shrug that nearly every player could've been selected a round later?

However it plays out, the Draft is a weekend to gleefully indulge our fanaticism, to dream big about the upcoming season, to over-think the manifold possibilities.

I don't have any draft grades, no winners and losers. But I do have several things I liked (+) and disliked (-) throughout the course of the weekend. Read along.

+ As wary as I am of the Stafford pick for Detroit, the remaining selections were all part of a solid - dare I say it - plan. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew gives them a top talent even if not a dire need. Safety Louis Delmas adds desperately needed physicality to the backcourt. Receiver Derrick Williams is a playmaker, plain and simple. And a ton of big, raw prospects late in the Draft gives coach Schwartz talent to develop in the trenches. I don't know if this class will work out for the Lions, but the logic is there.

- The Browns tried the quantity over quality approach... only they didn't nab much quantity for all the quality they gave up. It's not that Alex Mack and Brian Robiskie won't develop into solid starters, they most likely will; rather, dropping from the fifth overall selection to the 21st and netting only a second rounder and a couple of sixths seems like blowing a golden opportunity. At least, Cleveland is putting themselves in a position to have another shot at a high draft pick next year.

+ Seattle fleeces Denver for the Broncos first round pick next year, giving up their high second round pick, yet the Seahawks still have the juice to nab top interior linemen Max Unger in a trade with Chicago.

- Ten minutes after Seattle selected Aaron Curry with the fourth overall selection, I forgot what he looked like. I was staring at one of those draft promos unable to recognize Curry for several seconds. Why do the Seahawks have this power of making players invisible?

+ Though they are essential the same receiver, the idea of DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin lining up on opposite ends of a formation is enticing. Add in Brian Westbrook spelled by "Shady" LeSean McCoy and the skill positions in Philly might match McNabb's ability to mix short and long seamlessly when he's on his rhythm.

- While Pat White at Miami looks like a good fit, it also looks like the extension of a gimmick. Bill Parcells has a history of extending gimmick until it bursts at the seams (David Meggett, anyone?) rendering White's pro potential capped by his ability to run the Wildcat, not bringing a traditional offense to meet him halfway at his considerable skill set.

+ Bill Polian always drafts like Bill Polian. For instance, NFL.com's write up on the Colts fourth round selection, defensive tackle Terrence Taylor, "Taylor has been a dominating player in the Big Ten. His biggest problem is that he lacks size. He has excellent strength and is a competitive player who plays really hard." Perfect Indianapolis player.

- Mike Brown always drafts like Mike Brown. For instance, NFL.com's write up on the Bengals sixth round selection, running back Bernard Scott, "Many red flags, including his age (25), being kicked off two teams (one in high school, one in college) and several run-ins with police." Hate to say it, but perfect Cincinnati player.

+ In a draft with a ton of solid but not spectacular talent, the Patriots owned the second round, perhaps the best round to own in a such a draft. With four selections, they added a bunch of promising prospects to the bottom of their roster, paving the way for a youth movement next season. Even better, New England parlayed two of their four third round selections into second rounders for 2010.

- With depth issues in several areas, Jacksonville traded up in the third round, giving up 2010's second to New England in the process, and picked a corner from William & Mary one selection after taking a defensive tackle from Temple. That's a lot of pressure the Jaguars are putting on this year and this class.

+ A certain luck seems to follow the post-Vick, post-Petrino Falcons. Last year, Matt Ryan dropped into their laps at three overall, transforming a previously woeful offense into a promising force. This year, Peria Jerry, the most exciting three-technique tackle in college football last year, drops into their laps at twenty-four overall. With a defense heavy draft, the Falcons could continue their ascent up the NFC.

- However some players never find their right fit. TCU safety Stephen Hodge was selected by the Cowboys to be a special teams ace which he should excel at. But Hodge might've been better off being selected by a team that plays the Tampa 2 defense and being moved to weakside linebacker. Hodge was one of the most fearsome hitters in college football last year and plays excellently inside the box. His speed, however, limits his ability to start at safety in the pros. Physically, he's a clone of Derrick Brooks.

+ Gm Ozzie Newsome might get some flack in the media for not addressing some glaring needs like wide receiver, the Ravens patiently restocked cornerstone positions of their team with players that fit their system and can develop into excellent starters. Selecting tackle Michael Oher at twenty-three overall and OLB/DE hybrid Paul Kruger in the second affirmed their identity as well as their depth.

- Sometimes affirming an identity can go a little too far. It's as if Al Davis knows everyone cracks wise about the Raiders valuing speed over all else and is deliberately making a huge show of it to prove who's in charge. Darrius Heyward-Bey wasn't really a reach compared to Davis's latter selections of speedy safety Mike Mitchell and tough guy end Matt Shaughnessy. But just about everyone selected by Oakland timed extremely well in shorts regardless of how they produced in pads.

+ Short on picks from the Jay Cutler trade, yet long on needs in their depth, the Bears wisely traded down from their second round pick and accumulated selections. They were able to address their defensive line depth (prospect Jarron Gilbert and solid Henry Melton) wide receiver depth (well-rounded Joaquin Iglesias and burner Johnny Knox) and add a playmaking cover two corner in DJ Moore.

- NFC North rival Green Bay, however, doubled back on their traditional Draft day strategy for one bold move. GM Ted Thompson's normal MO is stockpiling picks for value, increasing the chances to hit on his selections, and building up competition throughout the team. This year, with the trade of three picks (a second and two third rounders) to New England for the chance to draft linebacker Clay Matthews, the Packers eschewed their patient ways. Along with earlier selection BJ Raji, the Packers might have refashioned their defense with a couple of elite talents. Or they might've tied their fate to a couple lord of the flies talents in a mediocre Draft class.

+ Somehow the Giants managed to hit every need on their roster while never reaching or overreacting. Receivers Hakeem Nicks and Ramses Barden will compete to replace Plaxico. Linebacker Clint Stintim and tackle William Beatty add depth and potential long-term replacements. Tight end Travis Beckum and back Andre Brown add some solid legs to the offense and its skill position rotation. The rich keep getting richer for a reason.

- Is it just me or is Virginia becoming a factory for NFL read but bloodless offensive tackle play? First, D'Brickashaw Ferguson has all the tools to be great yet still plays like a rookie at times well into his third season. Then, Branden Albert coming out last year would rather play guard than tackle. Now, Eugene Monroe to the Jags potentially becomes the next poster child for the outline of a great left tackle but none of the guts of one.

+ I know, I know. Every year, I seem to get excited for the Texans defense to take control in the AFC South. But, good lord, they finally could've put their line in order. Sure, linebacker Brian Cushing should be a nice complement to DeMeco Ryans inside. But the prospect of Connor Barwin coming off the edge opposite Mario Williams, while both flank Amobi Okoye is what could push this defense to the next level. Should Dunta Robinson stay healthy and perhaps even young tackle Frank Okam develop, Houston might finally leap into the AFC's top tier.

- A minor complaint, but this year's Mr Irrelevant might not be very irrelevant. Kicker Ryan Succop, taken with the 256 selection, might make an impact on a Chiefs team desperate for solid production in the kicking game. Every year, the last pick of the Draft is feted with a parade and banquet in Newport Beach, California, during the summer, a sort of fifteen minutes a fame for a player more likely to slide into sudden obscurity. However, Succop, a strong legged kicker, has a great chance of making a career with the Chiefs, stealing the award from a true Mr. Irrelevant.

The Leadership Of the Blind

When it comes to this year’s class of left tackles, draftniks are in agreement about two things. One, it’s highly probable six left tackles are selected in the first round. A large number to say the least. And two, this year’s class isn’t all that great.

These two contentions are at odds, perhaps even contradictory. If the available talent is low, why is the demand still high?

Because, next to quarterback, left tackle is the most valuable position on the field, in part due to its protection of that unqualified most important position on the field. At least, according to some.

So it is a question of value… just of the position more than the player.

It’s fitting then that Michael Oher from Ole Miss is in the thick of this contradiction. Oher of course was the central character in Michael Lewis’s seminal book The Blind Side. Lewis chronicled the evolution of the game through the rise in importance of the left tackle position.

Starting with Lawrence Taylor, offenses faced freakish athletes rushing the quarterback’s blind side. The counter move in this game of chess was placing another freakish athlete in the speed rushers path. Tackles had to not only be massive men but display nimble footwork, excellent balance, and ungodly strength.

A rare athlete, indeed. Which in part explains why NFL teams covet even the potential for a quality starting left tackle. But this rarity should underscore also the possibility that most of these prospects won’t transform into dependable starters much less perennial Pro Bowlers.

Teams at the top of the Draft have visions of Joe Thomas and Jonathan Ogden. Yet with this class they might end up with Robert Gallery or Alex Barron.

Out of all the tackles, Andre Smith was the one universally thought to be worth a top three selection when the college season ended. Yet Smith’s horrendous postseason from the bowl game suspension to flight from the Combine to uneven pro day has instilled doubt in scouts about his potential to succeed as a pro.

Jason Smith and Eugene Monroe have apparently filled that overlarge void left by Andre. Yet at no point until the Draft season was well underway were Jason and Eugene considered worthy of a top three selection. Yet there their names are atop many mock drafts and, more importantly, team boards.

And then there is Oher. The epicenter of contradictions. A boy in a man’s body. Born black and poor now spoiled (and deservedly so) by a rich white family. A beheamoth light, even graceful, on his feet. A hard worker that suffers from sloppy technique.

No one emobies the contradictions of this year’s left tackle class quite like Oher.

Yet for all my skepticism I find myself hoping Michael Oher is available when Packers select ninth overall. Sure, the revamped defense needs rush linebackers, the defensive line is razor thin in terms of depth, and the starting corners while great are months away from qualifying for AARP benefits. But an elite anchor to the offensive line remains the more seductive if less sexy idea.

I don’t have a good answer for why I feel this way. The unknowns, the vexing variables, should throw up warning signs all over this potential path. But sometimes tried and true football logic overrides sound football decisions.

This weekend, I’ll be on the scene at the Draft. I recommend checking Throwing Into Traffic where Zac will be live blogging the Saturday selections. Check back Monday for my full Draft write-up. Enjoy the weekend.

Know Your War Rooms, the Rest (Cliff Notes)

After months of anticipation, the Draft is nearly here. I'm only halfway through the Know Your War Rooms series (check here for parts one and two).

(Blame the delay in this analysis on several things: grilling in the park on a beautiful Saturday, a pesky virus caught from my roommate, laying the groundwork for new and ambitious projects.)

With time running short and much preparation to go before I cover this year's Draft in person, here's Fuhbaw's breakdown of the remaining NFL war rooms in breezy Cliff Notes style.

16. San Diego Chargers

GM AJ Smith is a top talent evaluator. The Chargers are a talent stacked team and Smith, brash bastard that he is, knows it. He also knows San Diego's Super Bowl window won't remain open forever, with LaDainian Tomlinson on his last legs. Add in the defensive struggles when Shawne Merriman missed all of last season, and expect Smith to target a few key players ready to contribute, ones likely to add teeth to his defense or speed to his offense.

17. New York Jets

New coach Rex Ryan has talked a lot about turning the Jets into an aggressive team. New acquisitions Bart Scott, Lito Sheppard, and Jim Leonard reflect that talk. Whether that aggression translates to the Draft (or to the field, for that matter) remains to be seen. The team needs a quarterback and may trade up should Mark Sanchez fall or Josh Freeman linger. The team needs a speedy wideout and depth along the defensive and offensive lines and could trade down to collect valuable picks. However sitting tight at each of their seven picks and selecting the best player available might be the best (non) move.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa 2 may not reign in Tampa much longer. New coach Raheem Morris brought in veteran defensive coordinator Jim Bates who runs a 4-3 scheme based on the old Dallas defenses of the 90s. The major differences between Bates's defense and the Tampa 2 honed by Tony Dungy and Monte Kiffin is a reliance on more size than speed and requiring aggressive man-to-man coverage at the corners. The Buccaneers lack suitable personnel, especially after the veteran purge early in free agency. New GM Mark Dominik even with needs on his offense, one short on playmakers, might be inclined to go defense with his selections.

21. Philadelphia Eagles

The future is always somewhere else in Philly. Andy Reid often goes big, selecting linemen in the early rounds, despite consistent depth there. And Reid also trades down for future picks if he doesn't like the available value. After trading the 28th pick to Buffalo for Jason Peters, the offensive line should be solid. That means the Eagles must target a playmaking receiver or running back at 21, right? Maybe. Or maybe they'll wait until one of their four fifth round picks comes up.

22. Minnesota Vikings

You might think that the only thing this team would need would be a quarterback. The front office would disagree with you. Without the ammo to trade up for Sanchez, the point is fairly moot anyway. And the Vikings could use depth, on the offensive line, in the secondary, and at receiver. The team doesn't shy away from small school prospects, so prepare for a couple head scratchers.

23. New England Patriots

Perhaps the most exciting thing about this draft once we get past the first ten or so rounds? Bill Belichick is holding eleven selections, six among the first 100. That, my friends, is draft day ammunition. The three second rounders in particular will begin to look like gold come Saturday morning. If there's anyone the Patriots covet, they more than likely can get him. It should also be noted that the Panthers, holding a disgruntled Julius Peppers, don't pick until 59, which is after the Patriots would pick four times if their selections remain unmoved.

24. Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons and GM Thomas Dimitroff proved adept in last year's Draft at addressing their pressing needs while moving around to select players at good relative value. This year their selections near the end of each round instead of the beginning, which will make that task considerably more difficult. Expect Dimitroff to try as his young playoff team still needs bulk along the defensive line and speed in the secondary. In his first draft, Dimitroff gravitated toward performers from big college programs.

25. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins need a receiver or two. They could also use some more speed at the corners. But my bet is that Bill Parcells, despite the surprise playoff run last year, doesn't believe this team is big enough and talented enough in the trenches to win year in and year out. Don't be surprised if Parcells spends many of Miami's early picks on sizable specimens playing linebacker, defensive end, and guard.

26. Baltimore Ravens
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In case you missed Judy Battista's article in the New York Times this weekend, let me summarize. GM Ozzie Newsome is patient, thorough, and deliberate. The Ravens know exactly what kind of player they want on their team and construct their prospect board accordingly. Plus, Newsome trains each of his scouts in their scouting system making the chain of communication that much clearer from the scouting reports to the war room discussions. Consequently, the Ravens don't reach and don't overreact.

27. Indianapolis Colts

Team president Bill Polian’s strategy is the ultimate study in best player available. The phrase is tossed around plenty pre-Draft. But during the Draft no team honors its strictures better than the Colts. So we can talk the Colts needing another wide receiver, bigger defensive tackles, and depth at linebacker, but Polian will be content to sit back and select whatever player is rated highest on his board. As far as that board is concerned, Polian values character, intelligence, and production at big-time college programs over combine measurables, extremely to the point of fetishizing undersized, speedy players at just about every position.

29. New York Giants

New York’s transformation from underdog to frontrunner can in large part be attributed to GM Jerry Reese’s continuation of the steady drafting his predecessor Ernie Accorsi started. Like Accorsi, Reese values on-field toughness that lines up with elite measurables. Like Accorsi, Reese scours smaller programs for over-looked talent. Like Accorsi, Reese places premium on pass rushers and road graders. Most observers assume a Draft day trade with Cleveland for Braylon Edwards is imminent. But don’t be surprised if Reese isn’t lying when he says he’s comfortable going forward with Mario Manningham and Domenik Hixon.

30. Tennessee Titans

Tennessee is a motley crew. And coach Jeff Fisher and GM Mike Reinfeldt like it that way. The Titans put top measurables like speed and strength at the top of their board, letting concerns like character take a back seat, happy to jump on any player that slips because of character concerns. Fisher’s long tenure and success affords Tennessee some rooms for mistakes. Fisher gambles that the Titans support network is strong enough to tame an unruly talent. In the case of Albert Haynesworth, yes. Pacman Jones? Not so much.

31. Arizona Cardinals

Last season’s surprise Super Bowl run was a testament to GM Rod Graves’s stellar drafting the past several years. The perennial two-bit franchise finally found the perfect bargain shopper in Graves who wasted no time in restocking the roster with young, elite talent. There have been some misses (Alan Branch and Matt Leinart still ride the pine) but more often than not Graves has hit on productive college players from big-time programs at crucial positions: Larry Fitzgerald, Karlos Dansby, Darnell Dockett, Anquan Boldin, etc. Graves’s two biggest challenges this year come down to a decision to deal disgruntled Boldin for less than the Cardinals’ considerable asking price (currently a 1st and 3rd rounder) and to unearth the same talent as in years prior while selecting at the end of each round.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have built their perennial contender through the Draft. While the Bidwells are considered penny pinchers, the Rooneys are tagged thrifty and brilliant because of their amazing Draft resume. Their offensive and defensive identity is set in stone which makes player evaluation for Pittsburgh that much easier, they know what kind of players are likely to thrive in their systems. Sure, the lines on both sides of the ball are getting a little old, but don’t expect GM Kevin Colbert to select a position because it fits a need. The Steelers aren’t afraid to trade up and down if they’ve targeted a player that can round out their considerably talented roster.

49. Chicago Bears

The Bears Draft? Jay Cutler, for better or worse. It's not like he needs anyone to throw to...

51. Dallas Cowboys

Amazingly, Dallas has eleven selections. Unamazingly, none are in the first round. Roy Williams is essentially their first rounder, and, like many first rounders, Dallas hopes for a big improvement during his second year with the club. Jerry Jones lives for hype and razzle-dazzle. But with so many middle round picks and such a talented starting line-up, the most sense might come from standing pat and selecting quality depth to build up the bottom end of the roster. The Cowboys tend to do well in the middle rounds with prospects from big schools.

59. Carolina Panthers

Losing a game changing defensive end - to trade, free agency, or retirement - has never left a team in good straights. (I'm thinking the Chiefs after Jared Allen, the Eagles after Reggie White, and the Vikings after Alan Page, specifically.) So Carolina would be stupid to give in to Julius Peppers's demands. But with needs throughout their defense, the Panthers might be tempted to realistically shop Peppers in order to land a couple immediate contributors. And as much as I would like Peppers free from the Panthers malaise, I still think its stupid on their part if they do the trade.

Carving Up Baby

One of the vexing issues affecting how the NFL Draft shakes out this weekend centers not necessarily what each team's identity is. Rather, it comes down to what each team thinks its identity is.

But why say "identity" when we could say "need?"

A lot of pre-Draft analysis gets it wrong because of the focus on team needs. Sure, countless times teams have and will continue to draft players because of a perceived lack on the roster. Most of the upcoming Draft will unfold on need-based decisions.

But what appears a need to the outsider will often not mesh with what a team believes its most pressing need on the roster to be.

This is where the slippery notion of identity comes in.

For years, the New England Patriots eschewed drafting linebackers and corners in the early rounds despite aging and tepid play at both positions. The wholehearted belief in their defensive system, stressing responsibility over playmaking, deemphasized the perceived need for youth at those positions.

Last year, the Pats reversed course and drafted linebackers with their first and third round selections and a corner with their second. Those selections had less to do with the Pats refashioning their identity and more to do with having a roster air tight at nearly every other position. An exception that proves the rule. The Pats drafted so frequently in terms of their perceived identity – defensive linemen, receivers, offensive linemen – they had no practical choice but to draft against type.

On the matter of Draft day strategy, I have much to agree with when Zac at Throwing Into Traffic concludes that identity advancing talent is always a need.

I would like to take that a step further. Consider what the Lions should do with the first overall selection.

In the salary cap era, good teams tend to draft well because their identity is clearly articulated and that identity is wrapped up in success. That makes sense, right? The identity of a successful team is built around good-to-great players and coaches. These proven players and coaches eases the pressure on young players to come in and bear the burden of changing a team’s identity, much less contribute on the field right away.

What Detroit lacked in the Millen years was identity. It’s not that Millen didn’t try to impart a rough and tumble image to the Lions. Rather, he did it in words not deeds, actions irrelevant to the football field rather than action on his free agency and Draft boards.

What Detroit under Jim Schwartz needs and needs quickly is identity. Outside of Calvin Johnson and Julian Peterson, the Lions have nothing save Daunte Culpepper’s raging against the dying light, not a narrative any team wants entertwining mortally with their future.

Complicating this is when it comes to the Draft and identity, there’s a distinct tension. Secrecy and subterfuge are the methods of each war room in the lead-up to the Draft. Yet an identity is something that is claimed, or proclaimed, often loudly when effective.

Thus has it been with the Lions whom everyone assumes Matt Stafford the pick, the Lions hoping to sign him at a slightly discounted price by simultaenously negotiating with Jason Smith and Aaron Curry.

But is Stafford the right selection? Does he reinforce the identity Detroit is attempting to construct? Does he reinforce the identity they should construct?

The Lions need accountability and leadership, alongside talent, more than anything else. It’s not about offense versus defense. It’s not about paygrades.

The notion that Detroit should draft a quarterback number one overall because of the general value of the position in relation to the other 21 on the field is ridiculous and should be deleted from the final accounting. Drafting a quarterback simply because of a abstract value-fit sends the wrong message to the rest of the team and the fans. Ask Raiders fans how JaMarcus Russell is working out.

If there’s any lesson learned from his time at the Titans, Schwartz should know that rare talent shouldn’t be passed up. The selection of Chris Johnson last year was roundly criticized even though he was the best player left on the board when the Titans selected. Johnson, of course, transformed a previously limp offense into something potentially dangerous.

Quite simply, Stafford quarterbacked a Georgia team with an absolute glut of talent yet the Bulldogs failed to even compete for the National Championship, bettered by two teams in their own conference (and I’m not entirely sure Ole Miss wasn’t also better than Georgia by season’s end).

On the other hand, both Jason Smith and Aaron Curry are physical marvels as well as vocal leaders. A left tackle and a middle linebacker are not as rare commodities as an elite quarterback. In there own way they represent as much risk as Stafford does. Despite what Schwartz’s has said, risk isn’t the issue.

If the Lions, however, select Stafford, they take talent that doesn’t further what the team should be or the team the Lions have talked about creating. They cross their fingers and hope for a quick fix instead of assembling the most talented roster possible (Curry) or emphasizing a game changing nastiness (Smith).

The team can afford to take chances on talent. Yes, they need a quarterback of the future. What they can't afford to take is a chance on a player doesn't fit the identity they're striving for.

Stay Tuned

Stay tuned. There's going to be some newness around here in the coming weeks.

I should be all out prepping for the NFL Draft. The home stretch nears, to unfurl the sports clichés. Thrusts and feints abound. Risers and sliders rise and slide.

I should be plowing through my Know Your War Room series. It's difficult and intense work pouring through past drafts seeking common themes, themes that match a team's successful or failed bid for identity.

And while difficult that work is ultimately rewarding and, more importantly, I believe, worthwhile.

But my mind is setting course for different destinations, not bobbing to the murmuring rhythms of pro football's offseason.

I think a lot about this format and this forum I've labored in, sometimes lovingly, sometimes not, for close to two years. (Christ, has it really been two years?)

Often I've surprised myself, no so much with the substance of my beliefs but the conviction of some or the lack thereof of others.

There is something alternately harrowing and cathartic about turning inward and prodding the head and heart critically for the true measure of your ideas and dreams and nightmares. So you love football – but why? So you think “x” - but “z”?

For me, the process of blogging has been as much about clarifying my ideas on the game as it has been about the game itself. This clarification is a minor subplot – not the dominant narrative. When I first tepidly began Fuhbaw I often joked that it comprised my coursework. The joke continued on a muted level until today with repeated metaphors to basic math or references to school supplies (the Notebook posts, for instance).

In every sense, Fuhbaw has always been a training ground, my own exclusive academy. I've found that focus useful, rewarding, but ultimately a little too exclusive, a little too inward looking.

When I first gave myself over to the internet (trust me, very late for a person of my generation) I sensed a thrilling but obscure glut of possibilities. My first internet love was the Spark. Does anyone remember the Spark, its true content now relegated to the internet wayback machine? One of those weird shining lights that simply wrote its own rules in the service of pointless absurdity (“breathable, deadly: pantaloons”).

I've never really done the whole two feet at once into the future thing. I'm a cautious and deliberate sort (note the use of both “cautious” and “deliberate” in that sentence). I think. I consider. I set aside. I obsess. I mull. I agonize. And I try not to subject the people in my life to this process.

So is it with blogging and me. Me as a blogger is me cast against type. I continue to be truly amazed at how rigid the format is. Take even the liberation theology/revolutionary manifesto/prophetic wail of Free Darko: formality abounds.

Boundaries are a virtue. They create space for inspiration to flourish. But not every boundary is suited for every inspiration.

Does this read like a letter of resignation? A middle-school break-up note passed in-between classes? A eulogy for a miscarriage?

This is none of those things.

This is a new beginning (there's those clichés again).

I don't want to say too much just yet as I'm in the early stages of this revolution (think “cycle” not “Bolshevik”). Suffice to say, what I will offer will be sportswriting fuller in concept, in content, and in completion. This isn't merely good intentions. This is a promise, more to you than to myself. Thus far, the promises have primarily been to myself. It's time to change that up.

Okay, Fuhbaw will be back all over the Draft beat shortly. Apologies for the blip in the feed. But the outcome should more than make up for the brief broadcast interruption.

Define Gutsy?

At moment in which the NFL and its fans are the most starry-eyed, the dreams of the Draft still weaving their finger-crossed hopes, I find myself vaguely recalling dreams from which we've woken up.

Or at least the news that Byron Leftwich latching on with Tampa and Daunte Culpepper slimming down in Detroit has me remembering a time when both represented a new if slightly unnerving development in our idea of the prototypical quarterback.

I am, of course, talking about the fat man as quarterback.

Football has no shortage of exceedingly large men. Size has been a prized rarity since the sport's earliest days. The game with its neurotic concerns over accountability - you take that man, I got this guy - has always had a place for a rhinoceros who can occupy two or three opposing players, freeing up others to run unabated with or to the ball.

But as some point, as the game sped up and a rare size became bigger and beefier, size developed skill, too. The myriad hand fights a defensive tackle and offensive guard must wage underscores just how intricate the big man positions have become at the highest level.

Despite the developing skill of line play, however, big men were for the most part relegated to those same positions, defensive tackle and end, center, guard, and offensive tackle. There were, of course, a couple exceptions to the rule - Ironhead Heyward, anyone? - but for the most part size meant line play from an early age.

I remember the moment when the notion of a prototypical quarterback really took hold. Drew Bledsoe was supposed to be everything a quarterback can be. Six foot five. Two hundred and forty muscular pounds. Cannon arm. Limited mobility but superior reach. Pocket passing was shortly to be perfected by these rare creatures.

It was the early 90s and I felt a little put out that these gangling monsters would make quarterbacks like the Packers' Brett Favre or 49ers' Steve Young obsolete. It seemed conceivable at that moment that size would price 6'2" quarterbacks with moxie out of the future. (And Young especially while listed at 6'2" couldn't have been more than 6' exactly.)

The revolution never really came though. Sure, Peyton Manning's experienced wild success while encased in the rudiments of that prototypical frame (save the less-than-chiseled pecs). And Tom Brady was a string bean upon entering the NFL, building his slight frame into something more. But the Drew Bledsoe's came and went. Sure, Joe Flacco appears to be on the verge of promising career. But how does Carson Palmer's future look?

For the most part, the monsters never really stormed the village. The league's best passing veteran last season was smurfy Drew Brees. (And, no, I wouldn't say that to his face.)

Somewhere along the way, though, another development in the ideal quarterback sprang forth, the linemen-sized quarterback, one who could ward off the blows of defensive ends like King Kong and fighter planes.

The rational was somewhat sound. The rarest skill set belonged to the quarterback. No matter if a player has the size to the man the interior of the line, if he can run an offense with a big arm, place him behind center not at center.

In 2004, both Daunte Culpepper and Byron Leftwich had their statistically best seasons. Culpepper was a credible MVP candidate even in a year when Peyton Manning broke the touchdown record. Leftwich had the Jaguars on the verge of a playoff berth with his tough but immobile play.

Put the rhino at quarterback! Watch him bulldoze any would-be rushers. Hell, the success of Culpeppers and to a lesser degree Leftwich probably is directly responsible for Jared Lorenzen, the Pillbury Throwboy himself, being drafted.

Yet, just as quickly as it seemed the prototypes would truly become monsters, Culpepper and Leftwich toppled, both felled by leg injuries, robbing of them of their mobility. Lorenzen has probably ate himself out of the leauge. And JaMarcus Russell is on the cusp of a make-or-break season just two years after signing a fittingly ridiculously large rookie contract.

Only Ben Roethlisberger has experienced any sustained success as in the rhino-at-QB model. Consider, too, that he's only posted one truly elite season and been surrounded by a stellar supporting cast and ferocious defense.

I don't know how Leftwich will do at the Buccaneers. I don't know how Culpepper will fare in Detroit. I thought both showed plenty of promise last season in limited action. But like the weight these big guys carry, I'm inclined to think that the performance of a big QB fluctuates much like said QB's bathroom scale. The can be terrifying... and terrifyingly inconsistent.

Know Your War Rooms, Selecting 11-15

In the Draft, the middle of the first round is where things generally start to get interesting or hectic, depending on your point of view.

As the amount of guaranteed dollars drops and the level of talent slowly thins, teams are more likely to trade up for a coveted prospect or down to net additional picks.

Probably more than anywhere else in the Draft, the consequences of these trades and selections in the tens shape a team's immediate fortunes. Consider too many of these teams exist in the league's middle class, going 7-9 to 9-7 the previous season, perhaps only a player or two away from reaching the playoffs.

Projections often fail mightily in guessing just how exactly these trades will reorder the first round. All the more important to know your war rooms. (Part one here.)

Let's continue with the second part of Fuhbaw's five three part analysis of each of the 32's war rooms and their tendencies. Again, I'm discussing each team as their original draft slot comes up before trades (though all trades are noted). Onward!

11. Buffalo Bills

Bill general manager Russ Brandon has been on the job for a little over a year. And in that time he's brought a more aggressive direction than predecessor, coaching legend Marv Levy. Levy was supposed to right the ship, which he did. But his moves were cautious, his management uncomplicated. Brandon has pushed further in the Draft and free agency than Levy while still retaining some of his conservative ways.

Case in point, Brandon's first Draft with the Bills netted more prospects from small schools, something generally avoided under Levy's guidance. But premium was still placed on players with consistent college production, a hallmark of Levy's tenure. Expect Brandon to stand pat, not moving up or down, to make his selections. The Bills traditionally don't engage actively in the smokescreens and shell games that some teams do in the lead up to the Draft. Brandon, however, will take measured risks on character, whether it's James Hardy in the Draft or Terrell Owens in free agency. If the stars align on a productive player with a few but no glaring red flags, expect Brandon to take a risk.

The real question about the Bills is whether the 6-2 start or the 1-7 finish is the real team. Losing Derrick Dockery to free agency and the specter of another long Jason Peters holdout indicate needs along the offensive line. Inconsistent to nonexistent pass rush indicate needs along the defensive line. And while their skill positions especially in the defensive backfield and wide receiver appear solid, playmakers anywhere would be welcome for this middling team.

12. Denver Broncos

As if new coach Josh McDaniels and new GM Brian Xanders didn't have a big enough job in rebuilding an atrocious defense, with the outcome of the Jay Cutler saga and trade, they must reconstruct the team's most important position on offense as well. In losing a franchise signal caller, Denver netted a trove of Draft day riches from Chicago. Of course, those riches won't buy McDaniels and Xanders anything but a ticket out of Colorado unless they hit on their several first day picks between this and next year.

Like any newness, we lack a long track record to discern tendencies of the current front office. Xanders worked under former Broncos GM Ted Sundquist and coach Mike Shanahan. Shanahan directing the war room for the most part wasn't afraid of character concerns and didn't shy away from focusing solely on team needs, occasionally reaching with his picks or trading up for a targeted player. McDaniels of course apprenticed under Bill Belichick perhaps leading us to believe, in tandem with the Cutler drama, the new Broncos will place high grades on unselfish play, versatility, and work ethic.

But, like I said, absent a track record, that's purely conjecture. There certainly no shortage of needs. Quarterback might seem the most pressing, leading many to believe a trade up is possible should Mark Sanchez or Matt Stafford tumble. Let's not forget the mess on the defense that in large part led to Shanahan's dismissal. It wouldn't surprise in the least if the Broncos spent most of their ten picks on defensive linemen and linebackers, even all of their five selections in the first three rounds. Adjusting the identity of the team 180 degrees into a defensively dominating group might soothe in part the raw feelings at the loss of Jay Cutler.

13. Washington Redskins

Are the Redskins a borderline playoff team on the cusp awaiting a stellar Draft class to push them over the brink? Or is the rapid aging of their best players setting the franchise up for a precipitous drop off sooner rather than later? Sporting a mixture of youth and experience with razor thin depth, Washington is an ever shifting identity crisis. Talented enough when healthy to challenge any squad yet unfocused enough to succumb again to any squad. Owner Daniel Snyder and VP Vinny Cerrato are the counterpoints to the consistent Dan Rooneys and Bill Polians of the NFL world. Nowhere is this more evident than on Draft weekend.

As far as the Draft is concerned, Washington embodies the small sample size problem. Joe Gibbs stabilized the franchise to a great degree in his three years if unable return it to the Promised Land. Before new head coach Jim Zorn's first season, Washington selected ten players, the most by the team since 2002. In the past seasons, the Redskins burned Draft picks in trades, handcuffing their ability to inexpensively shore up depth. Usually so short on picks, Washington's front office has concentrated on needs and performers at big-time college programs. Despite last year's relative glut of picks (accomplished by trading down early) the Redskins continued to focus on needs, selecting three receivers - two wideouts and a tight end - with their first three selections while heading off the beaten path in late round selections sifting for overlooked gems.

A familiar refrain of Snyder-owned Redskins runs, they don't lack for needs just Draft picks. And again this year, that's the case. With only five selections, and only one on the first day, Washington is badly aged along the offensive and defensive lines. Plus, the linebacking corps desperately needs more consistency and depth to keep apace in the NFC East. How much ground they can make up on Draft weekend is questionable with so few picks and might be dependent on trading down.

14. New Orleans Saints

Save a shiny statistical season by Drew Brees, the Saints all-in approach last season netted no sudden improvements. In time, the trade for Jeremy Shockey and Jonathan Vilma may appear big pieces of a championship puzzle. Right now, however, those trades' terms pilfered New Orleans's 2009 Draft while leaving many of the same problems unanswered. The main problem is, of course, how to fix an inconsistent at best defense.

In coach Sean Payton's first couple drafts with New Orleans, the Saints targeted small school prospects with one or two elite measurables, hoping to uncover diamonds in the rough. Sometimes it worked (Marques Colston, Jahri Evans). Sometimes it didn't (Usama Young, David Jones). Last year, Payton did an about face, focusing on players from power conference. It's too soon to tell if the sea change paid off. And it's difficult to tell if Payton will continue that strategy.

What's not difficult to see is the myriad needs on the roster. Defense remains a concern. Playmakers at linebacker, depth along the defensive line, skill in the secondary all constitute needs. As productive as the offense has been, depth in the trenches is shaky and could be addressed. And the consistency in the kicking game is a concern for a team with playoff aspirations. With only four picks, however, the Saints will have to trade down from their first round selection to afford themselves ample opportunity to address these needs.

15. Houston Texans

While many considered Jacksonville the most disappointing team in the AFC South last season, I expected greater things from Houston. Quite simply, two of their players are among the elite in the league while playing crucial and difficult to fill positions. And around Andre Johnson and Mario Williams, the Texans have drafted solid starters like DeMeco Ryans, Owen Daniels, and Steve Slaton. However, there's a pie-in-the-sky aspect to this Texans squad that continues to frustrate. Will Amobi Okoye really become the Luigi to Williams's Super Mario? Will Matt Schaub become something more than accurate and injury prone? Will anyone ever step up among their safeties to stop a big play at a crucial moment?

Coach Gary Kubiak and GM Rick Smith migrated from Denver three years ago and have upgraded the talent of a team that was once another expansion laughing stock, more 70s Buccaneers than 90s Panthers. They've focused on the less glamorous positions early in the Draft, the linemen and linebackers, while zeroing in on measurables in skill position players in the middle and later rounds. Like the Bills, the Texans are another team that's relatively quiet on Draft day, forgoing moving up or down, preferring to stand pat and make their selections according to their board.

While the high expectations for their defense last year didn't pan out, Houston may not consider the talent on that side of the ball as dire as some outside observers paint it to be. Sure, the corner and line play needs more consistency, but they have a number of young players on the roster with which they hope to see marked improvement. The more pressing needs are at playmakers, whether that's at outside linebacker, wide receiver, or safety. Depth along the offensive line and in the backfield are likely to be addressed. But given their overall solid but not spectacular roster, the Texans shouldn't stray too far from selecting the best player available regardless of need.

The Joker's Deck

Apologies for the delay in commentary. It’s been a hell of a week in my non-football life.

First, receivers and the Draft. I suppose there’s no more fun position in the league to debate. But it’s uncanny how receivers always become hot fodder for trade talks in the lead-up to the Draft.

Déjà vu. Again, we dream potentially new and fabulous destinations for Chad Ocho Cinco née Johnson and Anquan Boldin. This year’s hot stove talk is percolating over Braylon Edwards as well.

Each situation has its points of departure. But it’s the similarity that puzzles me.

Anquan’s deal is over a lack of deal, a new one anyone that puts him close to pay parity with fellow wideout Larry Fitzgerald.

Braylon’s deal is a two parter: 1) another potential victim in Eric Mangini’s Cleveland campaign against talent, and 2) a foci for criticism after an inconsistent at best season during an awful Browns season.

Chad’s deal is, uh, as far as I can tell a function of Chad being Chad and ‘Nati being ‘Nati. Ocho Cinco’s transformation from brilliant court jester to raving lunatic happened so quickly and so completely. The constant however was the Bengals allowing their team to bleed through free agency and slide further into irrelevance.

Each of these three receivers is at a different point in his career. Each shoulders differing levels of responsibility for being on the trading block. Each comes with his own amount of baggage for a potential new destination.

The similarity? Each of their teams is stupid to trade these three receivers unless they receive a ridiculous offer.

That being the case, boredom aside, why do we annually talk up the potential blockbuster trades of wide receivers? Is it because Randy Moss pulled the receiver diva coup to get out of the Black Hole? If top flight receiving talent is a rarity, why can we conceive of it given up so easily?

The wide receiver diva archetype is so ingrained that we hardly question how an individual situation comes to pass. Receivers that reach an impasse with their teams over money or playing time or performance are instantly fit to that archetype.

Despite any characterizations to the contrary, I do believe in the primacy of team. Football is after all a team sport. It’s beauty comes when all these sundry parts are whirring at top speeds with clockwork precision.

I don’t know if the position naturally sets itself against the team, isolated on the wings yet in the spotlight. I don’t know if that spotlight attracts the more egomanical among athletes. I don’t know if a receiver’s isolation on field works against the interdependency a receiver’s success has on every other moving part in the machine, that final piece to push a play to completion.

But I do know that there’s an eerie intersection at work when we imagine jettisoning a receiver who fits the archetype in the lead up to the Draft.

The Draft is about renewing an idea of our team, with some exceptions, no matter the previous season’s record or current roster. The important word there is “team.” In over-simplified football psychology, the receiver is often the one that tugs at the team’s cohesion.

No matter the worth of a talented and realized receiver on the field, when our teams exist mostly as ideas, receivers fitted into the archetype become expendable or transferable. That realm of ideas is a dangerous place to map out reality.

How did that work out for Oakland?


Second, well, I don’t have a second. Just go to Throwing Into Traffic for more Draft talk. You’ve heard the name, but Zac goes beyond the skinny on what makes Darius Heyward-Bey the most intriguing receiving talent in this Draft. Listen up, people, this is the truth.

Burn Your Passport

It was Super Bowl 39. The Eagles were driving in fits and starts down the field. They were down ten points but it felt like it could have been a hundred.

What should have been a thrilling contest felt dull and lifeless. My friends munched on miniburgers and downed beers, already amusing themselves with chatter about surf rock and Space Ghost references. I stared at the TV trying to find something to love about the game.

I knew the Patriots scored 24 points, I just wasn’t sure how. Tom Brady dinked and dunked my memories into oblivion. The exacting nature of Bill Belichick’s disciplined defense sucked the air out of every Eagles drive before the seemingly inevitable Donovan McNabb interception.

I felt numb. When did football turn into this?

The Patriots dynasty, confirmed that night, was built entirely on storylines that played well to the crowd and reducing the game to a series of scribbles on a whiteboard.

One of the reasons I started Fuhbaw, started obsessing critically about football, applying ideas I've stumbled across in the course of my life to a sport that I thought I left behind, is the degree to which I hate the Patriots Way.

It's not that I hate the New England Patriots per se. After years of being a middling franchise, their jump to elite status is encouraging for the bulk of the league's middle class. And Tom Brady's abilities despite his abilities is an entertaining if not entirely too saccharine narrative. Plus, the emphasis on team in a team sport – which if one pays too close attention to the commentary can seem like anything but – speaks to hallowed football principles.

Yet those virtues disguise vices.

(Show me a pre-Randy Moss highlight reel of the Patriots that doesn’t end in a field goal.)

There’s a couple things going on here. Belichick’s brilliant game plans deceive opponents, transforming deficiencies in talent into perceived strengths. A great coaching job to be sure. But we watch sport to witness superior athletic talent on display, not to be duped by the illusion of talent.

To accomplish this, the coaching staff squashes the individual identities of the talent that they do possess. Randy Moss is a notable exception (and perhaps the only reason I can watch the Pats without cringing). It’s one thing to enforce the team concept for the betterment of the team and thereby the betterment of the sport. It’s quite another to strip talent of its uniqueness to maintain an illusion.

It’s the four yard outs and draw after draw. It’s the two-gap responsibilities and cover three shell. It’s bend but don’t break. It’s “just do your job” screamed on the sidelines.

All this translates into boring, belabored football. The victories over such football evoke relief more than triumph, freedom from the low level hum of mind numbing precision.

I feel like I'm constantly tipping my cap to Belichick's evil genius exploits. As a fan, at some base level, one simply desires success, perhaps at whatever cost. But the cost is important.

Yes, we watch our teams and hope they win. But if our teams lose we don’t necessarily walk away with nothing. We still witnessed. We were there. We can remember the beautiful catch improbably plucked out of the air. We can remember perhaps heroics in defeat. We can concede defeat to the superior team or the lucky team.

Why wasn’t there more outrage over Spygate? Because Spygate didn’t change anything. It just confirmed what we already knew to be true. Belichick’s Patriots steal from the sport what isn’t rightfully theirs.

Defensive signals. Victory. Doesn’t matter.

I know this may sound like a diatribe. Perhaps it is. I don’t mean it any outsized outraged way. Belichick is paid to do what he does and he does it remarkably well.

He’s also a fantastic villain. Bloodless, arrogant, intelligent, and frumpy. He’s no hero for sure… but he could be an anti-hero.

This is all to say I won’t be joining my man Zac at Throwing Into Traffic in his measured dreams about Patriots West.

Zac makes several great points. And the language of his dream could come to pass. Matt Cassel in KC and Josh McDaniels in Denver make the AFC West an instantly more interesting division.

But I cannot root for this spread of the Patriots Way. And I may not have to rail against it. Watching Romeo Crennel blow down his house of cards in Cleveland and Eric Mangini jealously guard his toy train set in New York, it became abundantly clear New England's success isn't easily duplicated.

McDaniels could break that mold, he after all opened up the Patriots offense and realized a space for Randy Moss to flourish. But considering the horrendous start McDaniels is off to thus far I can't express any confidence either way.

What I do know, whether it's a culture war or a castle storming, pitchfork in hand I know what side I'm on.

Know Your War Rooms, Selecting 1-10

The NFL Draft is suffuse with variables. So much is possible. So much dependent on what happens as the event unfolds.

The cumulative effect is a bit disorienting.

It's impossible to know if the Seahawks will select a tackle or quarterback or wide receiver in the first round. Teams guard their scouting reports and draft boards like Fort Knox.

But what can't be guarded is a front office's track record. Patterns come to the surface from history. In part, a team's philosophy of roster building emerges from their prior selections.

While analysis of a front office's draft history won't lead us to absolutes, it can paint a fuller picture of the likely scenarios than a simple mock draft. It's not just team needs, it's a matter of style because in the end the Draft is about a team's identity more than anything else.

This analysis will be a three five three parter with a look at each team in their initial drafting position before trades shifted the order (and portends to even more on draft day). With that, let's better know your war rooms for the league's 32 teams.

1. Detroit Lions

The fact that Detroit's war room is an unknown is a probably a good thing given the franchise's flirtation with futility this decade. General Manager Martin Mayhew is a holdover from the Millen days, but remains highly regarded despite the association. Coach Jim Schwartz brings his deliberate and creative approach from Tennessee, a team that's drafted reasonably well under Jeff Fischer, Pacman Jones notwithstanding.

With no past drafts to scrutinize, only the offseason's myriad free agent moves gives a glimpse at the team Schwartz and Mayhew want to construct. Obviously, the new Lions value size and strength, cutting undersized and underperforming players like Mike Furrey, Shaun Cody, and Leigh Bodden, while adding Bryant Johnson, Grady Jackson, and Phillip Buchanon not to mention Julian Peterson.

If Schwartz sticks close to the lessons learned during his time at the Titans, expect the Lions to place value on top measurables in place of unquantifiable notions like character or moxie. While some speculate Detroit's interest in Jason Smith represents a bargaining tactic with Matthew Stafford, don't be surprised if the Lions truly target Smith with the first pick. He's a top athlete with rare size. So far it's been Schwartz's mission to make the Lions bigger so they can get better. Expect more of the same draft weekend.

2. St Louis Rams

The Rams are a difficult franchise to figure out. They've had success in seasons past but have been an unmitigated disaster of late. Add in the likelihood that the team is still up for sale and the Rams appear to be on shaky ground. Yet new GM Billy Devaney made a truly inspired hire with new coach Steve Spagnuolo. Spagnuolo had the pick of his jobs last season but rebuffed interest from the Redskins and others to await a better job. On the surface, the Rams don't seem to provide Spagnuolo with the security he sought.

That said, the Rams aren't without talent. Steven Jackson, Oshiomogho Atogwe, and Chris Long are solid building blocks. Devaney has been with the Rams for a couple years, it's unclear what hand he's had in the draft room up to this point. The inconsistent drafts the past few years directly lead to the club's general lack of identity. Will Adam Carriker and Chris Long make for a formidable defensive front? Or will the team waste their talents on poor schemes and tepid team play?

There's hope that Spagnuolo carries over his hellacious defense from New York. To do so, the Rams will need to draft for strength and speed since they lack for it on the roster. The Giants have transformed into a success by constantly focusing on pass rush. Targeting linebackers and edge rushers throughout the draft would be a big step to installing Spagnuolo's defense. Of course, cutting Orlando Pace is a clear indication of St Louis's intentions, especially with the second overall pick. Commentators have penciled in the top tackles Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe with certainty. After that, it's up to Devaney and Spagnuolo to create a tougher and deeper team, something lacking from their drafts of late.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

We can all mourn the loss of Herm Edwards the quote machine, but Chiefs fans won't miss the horrible in-game gaffes and abysmal clock management. Fans are not likely to miss Carl Peterson's wildly inconsistent drafting either. While Peterson's 2008 draft still has the potential of being a team defining class, hopes rest with new GM Scott Pioli turning Kansas City into New England West.

Obviously the Patriots loom large over the new Chiefs. Pioli got his quarterback in Matt Cassel from his old team. And Pioli's success in assisting Bill Belichick construct the Patriots offers hints about the direction the Chiefs will take. Let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. New England's made some notable misses in the past few seasons. They haven't assembled a great class since 2005 and have leaned heavily on free agency to shore up skill positions, especially in the secondary and at wide receiver. For a franchise with such considerable success, my hesitations may sound like quibbling, but it's important to separate myth from reality.

A good indication of Pioli's direction could be how he helped build the Patriots in the early part of the decade, mainly, focusing on rare intersections of size and strength. Pioli and Belichick nabbed linemen early and often while building the Patriots. Pioli also focuses on players from big time programs with consistent on field production while ignoring workout warriors. He also places a high value on football people, sons of players and coaches, who can fulfill roles. Provided new head coach Todd Haley can refrain from tearing the roster apart, expect Pioli to craft a savvy tough team in KC.

4. Seattle Seahawks

My buddy DJ Noid has been waiting for this day, the draft where Seattle finally has a top pick so they can nab an elite talent that's eluded them drafting near the end of the first round year after year. No doubt, Seattle wasn't as bad as their 4-12 record suggested. Still, there's no shortage of holes on the roster starting with quarterback and the offensive line, once considered strengths of the team. I love Hass for whatever reason (photo in the banner no small point) but it's unclear whether he can regain his Pro Bowl form.

GM Tim Ruskell is an odd one. On the one hand, he projects a measured approach to the Seahawks rosters, re-signing proven veterans before they hit the market, drafting high character players with solid college production. On the other hand, Ruskell will drop mega contracts on players, whether a wise investment or not. Add in how badly he fucked up the Steve Hutchinson transition tag fiasco, and it's tough to know which Ruskell is the real one.

That said, Ruskell's draft record is remarkably consistent. Ruskell likes players from big schools in power conferences with solid stat sheets. He doesn't get hung up on measurables or workout warriors. He values production over potential. In essence, the Seahawks secondary is very short. With picks near the top of each round this year, Ruskell should have a chance at players with higher ceilings. And with the Seahawks needing help at quarterback, tackle, safety, running back, and corner, he'll have no shortage of options.

5. Cleveland Browns

While I don't know if the Jets should have fired Eric Mangini, it's unclear if he's up to the task of remaking (again) the Cleveland Browns. During his time in New York, he unearthed a few nice starters and role players in the Draft. But when he's not alienating his current stars Mangini will have to transform a defense that's never lived up to expectations.

With new GM George Kokinis, the ManKok (that's never going to get old, is it?) need to bolster a tepid pass rush, deepen a depleted secondary, nab some pass catchers, and settle on a signal caller. Oh, and they need to catch up to the Ravens and Steelers, too.

In drafts with the Jets, Mangini focused on elite measurables like speed in corners and rushers, strength in linemen and backers. He's also placed a high value on versatility, as evidenced by players like Brad Smith and Leon Washington. With only five picks this year, the Browns might need to actively trade down on Draft weekend to address their glaring weaknesses. The war room in New York that Mangini was a part of wasn't afraid of trades, often moving up to select a targeted player. For a team short on depth, being short draft picks doesn't help.

6. Cincinnati Bengals

Let the jokes fly. Cincy hasn't necessarily done terribly on Draft weekend. It's just that they've ignored issues like character and chemistry while they've nickled and dimed promising starters out of town. Just when you think the Bengals can't take a chance on a troubled talent, they turn around and pluck the longest rap sheet they can find. It's bizarre. The Brown family definitely marches to the beat of their own drummer. And I don't know if that's a good thing.

Beyond the convictions, other patterns emerge from recent Cincy drafts. They focus on solid performers from big time schools early in the Draft. Many early picks have been spent on defense these past few years. Keith Rivers was an inspired pick as was Domata Peko. But the Bengals still have needs on that side of the ball.

And despite drafting receivers to eventually replace Chad OchoCinco and the now departed TJ Houshmandzadeh, the Bengals couldn't go wrong selecting one from this year's talented class. Should they want Carson Palmer to remain upright, depth along the offensive line could be a key to this Draft. While I still think Palmer's overrated, the team seems committed to him. Likely Palmer and the Bengals' fortunes are intertwined.

7. Oakland Raiders

It's no secret what the Raiders value in prospects: speed. Al Davis's long draft resume reads like the roll of a track meet. Basically what I wrote last year still applies:

Oakland, the Black Hole, Al Davis's age - combine randomly and insert joke here. No doubt the Raiders have struggled the past five seasons. And part of those struggles are due to drafting inconsistently, in addition to poor coaching, dysfunctional management, and aging or injured veterans. Davis continues to head up the war room and despite his foibles of late he still cares passionately about building a winner in Oaktown. There is of course a type of player that typifies the Raiders, one they seek out in the draft. Cocky, swaggering... more tough than technician. Davis prides himself on being able to tell an athlete just by looking at them. Character concerns that might scare off other teams mean less in the final accounting for Davis and the Raiders. Plus, Davis isn't afraid to gamble on injury history.

While Davis's fetish for speed and top measurables constitute a considerable known, his maverick ways make his decisions difficult to predict. The Raiders need linemen and receivers and more depth in the secondary. But Oakland has never been a needs team. Davis will select the best players to his mind and let the chips fall where they may. The thought of Michael Crabtree being on the same team as Darren McFadden is seductive. Yet it's unclear if Davis even puts Crabtree on his board. One thing you can definitely say about the Raiders, they make Draft weekend interesting.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars

I'll never understand how the Jaguars got as talented as they are by drafting so inconsistently. And, after this year, we'll know if the fault lies with coach Jack Del Rio or now former GM Shack Harris. The Jaguars are seduced by top measurables sometimes selecting players late who haven't seen the football field much because of an excellent vertical or good three cone drill time.

In general, the Jaguars have gone directly after their needs whether that means trading down a few spots for Reggie Nelson or trading up for Derrick Harvey. The 2008 class was mostly a disaster, Harvey and fellow pass rusher Quentin Groves looking out of sorts much of the season. The team still has myriad needs in the interior of both lines as well as in the secondary and receiving corps.

Currently, Jacksonville is throwing out a huge smokescreen over potentially drafting a QB. It's unclear if they're simply hoping to entice another team to move up to the eighth overall selection or if there's another player they're hoping will be on the board when they select (Crabtree anyone?) or both. I know David Garrard has an awful statistical season last year, but the man was running for his life from day one. To keep apace with the Titans and Colts, the Jags will need more weapons and to become bigger and tougher in the trenches. However, he goes about it, you can bet Jack Del Rio knows this.

9. Green Bay Packers

Perhaps I shouldn't be allowed to analyze my Packers drafting. It's the one area where I without qualification adore the team's strategy, with minimal deviation from the company line. I can criticize GM Ted Thompson for head scratchers in free agency or coach Mike McCarthy for boneheaded play calls. But how the Packers draft is at once a thing of beauty in its elegant simplicity while being as dizzying as a whirlwind in its operation.

Thompson is a gifted talent evaluator but understands the limitations in predicting success in the NFL based on scouting. Instead of standing pat on Draft weekend and crossing his fingers as each turn comes up, Thompson constantly trades down to acquire more selections thus increasing the likelihood of hitting by increasing the number of players he brings in during a draft class. The strategy have transformed the Packers from an aging squad into a youthful one with a bright future and good cap number (please don't go away, salary cap).

It's such a simple and logical idea. It's also fittingly self effacing for the low key, tight lipped Thompson. With the selections he makes, Thompson excels at scouting wide receiver talent so much so that it's not a need in the least. Thompson though takes the highest player rated on his board regardless of need, why the Packers selected receiver Jordy Nelson with their first selection last year. In terms of needs, linemen and linebackers are paramount, but it would be out of character for Thompson to reach for a player. He does set up his board a little differently than most, placing high emphasis on character and on-field production, which leads some to criticize his selections as reaches. And I'm pretty sure Thompson is completely comfortable with people thinking whatever they want to about his drafts.

10. San Francisco 49ers

The Mike Nolan experiment is over. The Mike Singletary experience is proving to be a far weirder one than anyone ever dreamed. Looking through the last four years of San Fran drafts is chilling. Is there anyone on that team besides Patrick Willis and Frank Gore?

What direction the 49ers go with the tenth pick will provide a huge indication about the direction Singletary wants to take the team. Will he go big and grab the best rush backer available? Or will he take Mark Sanchez if he falls to the tenth pick and try to add firepower to a flaccid offense? Will select the best playmaking receiver to complement Vernon Davis?

There's no shortage of needs. It certainly says something that Singletary was able to squeeze some quality wins out of such a talent poor squad. In essence, I wouldn't be surprised if he focuses the majority of his draft on the offense and defensive lines in an effort to get bigger in the relatively shrimpy NFC West. I think Singletary believes he can get by on Shaun Hill if his defense plays with enough fire and Gore plays keep away. The 49ers might emulate the Chicago Bears teams Singletary excelled for in the 80s and early 90s.

Cuddles the Bear

Some solutions are just so obvious, make far too much sense, that collectively we look right past them.

I don't know if the fault lies with the mundane answer being too transparent? Or simply too boring?

Whatever the reason, from time to time, the route formed by the shortest distance between "A" and "B" sometimes surprises in its forehead slapping simplicity.

Case in point: Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears.

Everyone knew the Bears were interested. Everyone knew coach Lovie Smith has edged closer and closer to the end of his post-Super Bowl grace period. Everyone knew the Broncos were short on leverage except the wide interest in Cutler. Everyone knew Chicago quarterbacking with few exceptions has ranged from less than stellar to downright tragic these past couple decades. Everyone knew the price.

Hell, Cutler even grew up a Bears fan.

But everyone wrote off the Bears because of their penny pinching, because of their defense fetish, because of their distaste for flair.

Never underestimate the straight lines desperation draws.

Yesterday I mentioned Cutler represents a potential paradigm shift for some teams, Seattle was the specific example. And on the surface Cutler's mere presence on the Bears roster represents a new development, incredible resources poured into the game's most important position.

While the Cutler Rush might represent a Chicago paradigm shift from a personnel standpoint (debatable considering they've spent two first rounders on quarterbacks in the last decade), in terms of their offense, it's more of a lock than it appears at first blush.

Alternating between Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton these past four seasons, the Bears have simply asked their offense to not fuck it up. They'll ask Cutler to do more, to put up points, not just play keep away while the defense takes a breather.

The offense might appear different on the aesthetic level, the underlying ideas in operation will be much the same from Denver to Chicago, from Grossman/Orton to Cutler. Namely, the onus will be on the quarterback, set apart from the rest of the team but still responsible to the defense, not to play keep away, rather to provide a cushion of sevens and threes.

It’s not that Cutler won’t add an element of beauty to Chicago’s game, rather, he’ll accomplish it by being effective at it. Consider that Cutler is simply in Chicago terms a more talented, more realized, less flawed Grossman. Whatever changes he affects on the field, Cutler won’t swing the balance back from defense to offense, precisely because football is still a team sport and he’ll be all by his lonesome (Forte and Olsen are certainly talents but they’re weapons at offensive positions that only further serve to reinforce the defensive mindset).

The larger impact is the one Cutler has on the NFC North. In a sense, Cutler announces a literal arms race in the division. For a division in which last year, a first year starting quarterback was unquestionably the best among the four teams, Cutler topples a precarious and flawed balance.

As a Packers fan, a typical reaction might be disquiet that a hated rival landed a rare talent with a bright future ahead of him. Honestly, I’m relieved the division is finally catching up to some of the terms of this century. Most of all I look forward to eight plus years of battles between Cutler and Aaron Rodgers, both perhaps bringing the best out of each other twice a year or more.

Imagine, too, should Detroit land a premiere signal caller in this or next year’s draft. It’s a plausible notion that could more easily than any other route transform the division from a rotating one horse race into a free-for-all, strength found top-to-bottom.

(Perhaps that’s asking too much of the Lions franchise, but I’ll still maintain that Jim Schwartz has thus far done nothing to undermine reasonable hopes.)

In this whirlwind, I'm trying to figure out just how exactly in the Cutler trade did Jerry Angelo say "screw you" to the city of Chicago, the Bears franchise, and its fans. Normally, it's Angelo's first priority. I must admit, that message is not as crystal clear as it usually is.

Angelo in this case addressed a huge need for the team, a need that existed as an open wound for fans in the Windy City. He jumped at a rare chance aggressively, finally putting the weight of his convictions behind its outcome, good or bad. Sometimes a fan can't ask for anything more from their team than to do something, anything, just do it decisively.

Of course, Cutler came at a considerable cost.

Chicago now only possesses two picks in the first 100 of this year's draft, selections 49 and 99 at that. Throw in next year's first rounder and Chicago lacks a chance to inexpensively shore up depth.

For a team heavily effected by injuries the last two seasons since their Super Bowl appearance, depth is a serious concern, along the defensive line, in the secondary, behind the aging offensive line... and especially in the wide receiving corps.

This only serves to further the burden on Cutler’s shoulders. That’s the gamble that the Bears are taking on Cutler, that his shoulders are big enough.

In the end, Cutler exchanges navy blue and orange for, uh, navy blue and orange. Fitting for a change not as revolutionary as it seems yet is still rife with far reaching implications.

On the flipside, what are the odds Josh McDaniels cuts Kyle Orton by the end of training camp?

The Burden Of Modesty

Never mind. Apparently, Cutler's now a Bear.

A day after cautioning against wild conjecture, I’m reaching for that pie in the sky again. No, not concerning the Draft just yet.

Rather, Jay Cutler in trade and the resulting possibilities race through my mind.

I could perhaps approach this topic more practically. Zac at Throwing Into Traffic weighs the implications in the likely scenarios (Browns, Redskins, Jets, Lions, Bears, 49ers) while adding a couple overlooked but intriguing possibilities (Seahawks, Eagles).

The Seahawks call in particular presents a paradigm shift of sorts. Where Seattle has heretofore stressed consistency, building both an offense and defense around the idea, Cutler could transform their implements of precision into weapons. For the Broncos, Matt Hasselbeck and a swap of first round picks could by an unexpected route give Josh McDaniels what he sought in Matt Cassel. Drafting Sanchez fourth overall, McDaniels could have his USC quarterback to mold and buy himself time while the wily veteran Hasselbeck absorbs the shock of transition.

Forget the likely scenarios. Sure in business terms, the Redskins’s every itchy Dan Snyder is given. And the quarterback voids at the Jets, Bears, Lions, and 49ers make them assumed players.

But what about football terms? Outside of economics and personality types, what trades make the most football sense?

If this whole Cutler situation was mucked because of philosophical differences on both sides, where can those opposing sides regain balance? Four ideas hit in quick succession.

Buffalo Bills

With the acquisition of Terrell Owens, the Bills anounced their entry into the AFC East’s arms race. But it doesn’t solve the questions surrounding Trent Edwards as field general for a squad desperate to identify as a bruiser. Cutler’s arm strength and vertical game would unleash the potential of Lee Evans + TO and create space for Marshawn Lynch to punish defenses set on their heels. It could be what Dallas was supposed to be, yet failed to achieve, away from the spotlight.

In turn, Edwards would give McDaniels a signal caller with many of the traits the Patriots model covets: size, mobility, intelligence foremost. Most of all, Edwards could be as close to a blank canvas yet with NFL experience as McDaniels could find.

Houston Texans

I’m no fan of Matt Schaub. The fact that he’s made me think highly of Sage Rosenfels at isolated moments, tells me something is amiss. But he’s incredibly accurate as well as being big and mobile, all things that nominally work well in McDaniels’s system.

For Houston, Cutler can finally leverage everything possible out of Andre Johnson. Plus, Gary Kubiak brought the Denver system with him to the Texans which would allow for an easy adjustment. But really the notion of finally matching Johnson to a quarterback who can utilize all his strengths is purely enough.

Carolina Panthers

The idea of Cutler plus the Broncos’s 12th overall selection to Carolina for Jake Delhomme and Julius Peppers makes some sense. The Broncos desparately need an game changing defender while Champ Bailey continues his slide into irrelevance (c’mon, tell me now that Gibbs didn’t get the better end of that trade with Clinton Portis). Steve Smith needs a quarterback he can respect and one that can make the most of his downfield speed.

However Delhomme isn’t really an easy fit for McDaniels’s offense… He is in fact an older and less talented Cutler. But experience is a huge plus for the Patriots system. Look at the success of Chad Pennington in Miami and Kurt Warner in Arizona, both teams using variants of the New England offense McDaniels ran.

Miami Dolphins

In some senses, Pennington is the perfect Parcells quarterback. Smooth and tough. Handsome Chad is rarely rattled even though his physical gifts don’t quite back up his moxie. Observing Jets training camp before the Favre trade I was impressed with how much velocity Pennington was putting behind the ball in July. Then December came and Pennington’s passes started to slow, the out routes shortened, and the Dolphins play calling reverted down the stretch.

But packaging Pennington and his successor Chad Henne for Cutler would give the Dolphins a huge piece to stay apace in the AFC East while the Broncos would receive a talented leader and starter while providing McDaniels with another Michigan quarterback, this one he could groom from virtually Day One.

None of this scenarios will likely play out because of course pro football is a business and in the offseason business takes a front seat. What should happen often doesn’t, especially when big bucks are involved.

Coincidentally, Cutler stirred up mild controversy last year when he claimed his arm stronger than that of Broncos legend John Elway. Measuring such things objectively is impossible – and proven pointless by the Kyle Boller Theorem of Cannon Arms – but Cutler’s claim displayed hubris to many whether or not it hit close to the mark.

Now Cutler can rival Elway in another facet: sulking his way out of one franchise. Elway pulled the primadonna stunt with the Colts, then in Baltimore, upon being drafted. His trade to Denver beyond transforming the Broncos into fast rising contenders in part hastened the Colts middle of the night flight to Indianapolis.

Some, probably Colts fans, might term Cutler’s impending flight Denver’s divine retribution for stealing a once-in-a-lifetime quarterbacking talent. I prefer to think of it as demonstrating how short of a distance exists between such rare specimens as Cutler and Elway.

What the World Needs Now

The NFL Draft = anxiety.

It should be no secret to regular readers that while dreams make for some good material, I prefer the known to the unknown. Solutions in one sense. Mining the deeper truths buried beneath the surface in another. But in all senses concrete provides a better foundation for analysis than clouds.

Outside of heavy-handed analysis and Mel Kifer's sculpted do, the Draft however is light on the concrete.

Drafts are unique as sporting events because they offer nothing in the way of closure. After months of speculation all that follows is, well, more months of speculation. Dreams do not become real so much as shuffle off to the next phase of REM sleep.

It’s not that there’s nothing to say. The sheer volume of draft-centric websites that have cropped up over the past several years disproves that notion out of hand. Rather this wealth of data - mock drafts, scouting reports, lists of measurables - proves the inverse: just how little we know. Far from alleviating anxiety, the information overload underscores it.

Next week, I’ll kickoff Fuhbaw’s Know Your War Room series, a sifting through the tendencies of each NFL front office for clues about how these dreams might take shape. Does your team's GM draft for need or take the highest rated player on his board? Does he place measurables above production?

That analysis won't lead to anything definite except perhaps a fuzzy picture of possibilities and limitations. But this cottage industry of draftniks can’t answer the fundamental question either: what impact this rookie class will have on our teams?

Malcolm Gladwell confronted this problem in a New Yorker article some months back, using the difficulty the NFL has scouting talent as a framing device for difficulties predicting success in important professions, specifically teaching.

The point Gladwell makes about teachers goes doubly so for all NFL players, though in the article he focuses on quarterbacks, namely the job is so difficult, the environment so unique in its challenges, that no objective measure consistently and accurately predicts who will succeed and who won't.

Thus, pro prospects are by their very definition unknowns, pure potential in NFL terms. This gap in substance transforms prospects into, alternately, vessels of hope or harbingers of despair for fans.

I can stare at as many wonky draft sites as a human can read in a day. I still won't know who will be on the board when my Packers pick ninth overall. I still won't know if BJ Raji or Brian Orakpo or Malcolm Jenkins or Michael Oher will become a Pro Bowl caliber, much less solid starting, pro for my team or anyone else's.

And, of course, the Draft itself, the event the last weekend of this month, won't bring us any closer truths. But it will bring some measure of relief. The end of smokescreens and speculation. All the ideas we invested in these prospects, all the hopes and hesitations, will lead us to think differently about our teams and their chances for the upcoming season than we did before the weekend.

Last year during the Draft, I was sneaking around the upper balcony when the Jets selected Vernon Gholston sixth overall. The Jets fans cheered, thinking they landed their DeMarcus Ware, their Shawne Merriman. They busted out their four syllable, five clap cheer - "Ver-non, Ghol-ston" clap clap clap-clap-clap - and howled wildly amidst scattershot high fives.

Gholston, however, had the worst rookie season of any first rounder from last year, save maybe Keith Rivers's busted jaw.

So, as we hurtle toward the Draft, let me caution a bit of restraint even though I plan on losing my head in this drama as much as anyone. Let's just all agree that it's silliness while we let ourselves be engulfed by the angst.